Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Law of unintended consequences

This law usually means the entity that did things right gets screwed. For example, the bankruptcy laws. Delta and United airlines go bankrupt. They get to renegotiate their debt (about $.50 on the dollar) and other obligations like labor union contracts. The airline that drove their competition into bankruptcy (American) now has uncompetitive financing and labor union contracts.

The current financial crisis will likely yield a similar consequences. The big guys, saved by the taxpayer, will do fine. They will have a lot less competition because their horrible decisions will result in new regulations that will hurt the small banks and credit unions much more then them. The costs of complying for the big guys are spread over an asset base of a trillion dollars. The little guys have to spread it over a base of a few hundred million. Big difference. Similarly, the little guys did not make the liar loans that became the addiction of the big guys, but they did invest in the fictitiously rated triple A bonds the big guys peddled. They lose most of their investment and don't get any help. Is this capitalism??

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